A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
